Here are the latest polls
Running commentary:
The latest opinion polls suggests a slight deterioration in Reform’s standing. However, Labour is falling back too. The Tories are either static or have edged up slightly.
Pollster: BMG Research
Survey Date: 26 – 27 March 2025
Last Survey: 25-26 February
Labour: 26% (=)
Conservative: 24% (+2)
Reform: 23% (-4)
Liberal: 14% (+2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: Opinium Research
Survey Date: 26-28 march 2025
Last Survey: 19-21 March 2025
Reform: 26% (=)
Labour: 26% (=)
Conservative: 22% (+1)
Liberal: 12% (-1)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: Find Out Now
Survey Date: 26 March 2025
Last Survey: 19 March 2025
Reform: 26% (-1)
Labour: 23% (+1)
Conservative: 22% (+1)
Liberal: 12% (-2)
Green: 11% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: MoreInCommon
Survey Date: 22 – 24 March
Last Survey: 15 – 17 March
Conservative: 25% (+1)
Labour: 24% (-1)
Reform: 24% (-1)
Liberal Democrats: 12% (=)
Green: 10% (+3)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Pollster: YouGov
Survey Date: 23-24 March
Last Survey: 16-17 March
Labour: 23% (-3)
Reform: 22% (-2)
Conservative: 22% (=)
Liberal Democrat: 16% (+2)
Green: 10% (+1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Latest seat projection based on past opinion polls.
Reform win more votes than Tories but win less seats due to first past the post system.
Labour : 234 (-177), 25.4% – [92 Short]
Conservative: 138 (+17), 22.7%
Reform: 127 (+122), 24.1%
Liberal Democrat: 72 (=), 13.0%
SNP: 43 (+34), 2.8%
Green: 4 (=), 8.3%
Plaid: 4 (=), 0.6%
Others: 9 (+4), 3.0%
Pollster: Opinium Research
Survey Date: 19 – 21 March
Last Survey: 5 – 7 March
Labour: 26% (-2)
Reform: 26% (-1)
Conservative: 21% (+1)
Liberal: 13% (+1)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: Via Teche
Survey Date: 19 – 20 March
Last Survey: 12-13 March
Labour: 27% (=)
Conservative: 23% (+1)
Reform: 23% (-1)
Liberal Democrat: 14% (=)
Green: 7% (=)
SNP: 2% (=).
Pollster: Findout Now
Survey Date: 19 March
Last Survey: 12 March
Reform: 27% (=)
Labour: 22% (-2)
Conservative: 21% (=)
Liberal: 14% (+3)
Green: 11% (+1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: Deltapoll
Survey Date: 14 -17 March
Last Survey: 17-20 March
Labour: 25% (-4)
Conservative: 25% (=)
Reform: 23% (+1)
Liberal Democrat: 11% (=)
Green: 9% (+1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: More In Common
Survey Date: 14 -17 March
Last Survey: 7-10 March
Labour: 25% (=)
Reform: 25% (=)
Conservative: 24% (+1)
Liberal: 12% (-2)
Green: 7% (-1)
SNP: 2% (-1)
Pollster: YouGov
Survey Date: 16 -17 March
Last Survey: 9-10 March
Labour: 26% (+2)
Reform: 24% (+1)
Conservative: 22% (=)
Liberal: 14% (-1)
Green: 9% (=)
Pollster: Via Techne
Survey Date: 12 – 13 March
Last Survey: 5 – 6 March
Labour: 27% (-1)
Reform: 24% (-1)
Conservative: 22% (+1)
Liberal: 14% (+1)
Green: 7% (=)
SNP: 2% (=)
Pollster: Find out Now
Survey Date: 12 March
Last Survey: 5 – March
Reform: 27% (+1)
Labour: 24% (-1)
Conservative: 21% (=)
Liberal: 11% (-1)
Green: 10% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: More In Common
Survey Date: 7 – 10 March
Last Survey: 28- March
Labour: 25% (-1)
Reform: 25% (+1)
Conservative: 23% (-1)
Liberal: 14% (+1)
Green: 8% (+1)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Pollster: Focal Data
Survey Date: 26 28 Feb
Last Survey: Gen Election
Labour: 24% (-11)
Conservative: 22% (-2)
Reform: 21% (+6)
Liberal: 14% (+2)
Green: 8% (+1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: JL Partners
Survey Date: 6-9 March
Last Survey: 10-14 Jan
Labour: 26% (=)
Conservative: 24% (-1)
Reform: 23% (+1)
Liberal: 14% (+1)
Green: 7% (-2)
Pollster: YouGov
Survey Date: 9-10 March
Last Survey: 2-3 March
Labour: 24% (-2)
Reform: 23% (-2)
Conservative: 22% (+1)
Liberal: 15% (+1)
Green: 9% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: Opinium Research
Survey Date: 5-7 March
Last Survey: 19-21 Feb
Labour: 28% (=)
Reform: 27% (+1)
Conservative: 20% (-1)
Liberal: 12% (=)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: Via Teche
Survey Date: 5-6 March
Last Survey: 26-27 Feb
Labour: 28% (+2)
Reform: 25% (=)
Conservative: 21% (-1)
Liberal: 13% (=)
Green: 7% (-1)
SNP: 2% (=)
Pollster: Find Out Now
Survey Date: 5 March
Last Survey: 26 Feb
Reform: 26% (-2)
Labour: 25% (+2)
Conservative: 21% (=)
Liberal: 12% (-1)
Green: 10% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: More In Common
Survey Date: 28 Feb – 2 March
Last Survey: 21-24 Jan
Labour: 26% (+3)
Conservative: 24% (-1)
Reform: 24% (=)
Liberal: 13% (-3)
Green: 7% (-1)
SNP: 2% (-1)
Pollster: BMG research
Survey Date: 25-26 Feb
Last Survey: 28-29 Jan
Reform: 27% (+3)
Labour: 26% (+1)
Conservative: 22% (-3)
Liberal;: 12% (-2)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: ViaTeche
Survey Date: 26 Feb
Last Survey: 19 Feb
Reform: 28% (=)
Labour: 23% (-1)
Conservative: 21% (+1)
Liberal: 13% (+1)
Green: 10% (=)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Pollster: More In Common UK
Survey Date: 21-24 Feb
Last Survey: 14-18 Feb
Conservative: 25% (+2)
Reform: 24% (-2)
Labour: 23% (-2)
Liberal: 16% (+4)
Green: 8% (+1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: YouGov
Survey Date: 23-24 Feb
Last Survey: 16-17 Feb
Reform: 25% (-2)
Labour: 24% (-1)
Conservative: 22% (+1)
Liberal: 16% (+2)
Green: 8% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: Opinium Research
Survey Date: 19-21 Feb
Last Survey: 5-7 Feb
Labour: 28% (+1)
Reform: 26% (=)
Conservative: 21% (-1)
Liberal: 12% (+1)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: Findout Now
Survey Date: 19th Feb
Last Survey: 12th Feb
Reform: 28% (-1)
Labour: 24% (+1)
Conservative: 20% (-1)
Liberal: 12% (=)
Green: 10% (+1)
SNP: 2% (-1)
Pollster: Election Map UK
Date: 19 Feb 2025
Notes: This is the polling average since the 2024 General Election weighted by recency and historic polling accuracy. Produced by Election Maps UK, this shows Reform leading for the first time in the consolidated polls.
Reform: 25.6% (+10.9)
Labour: 25.5% (-9.1)
Conservative: 22.2% (-2.1)
Liberal: 12.6% (+0.1)
Green: 8.4% (+1.5)
SNP: 2.6% (+0.0)
ElectionMapsUK Nowcast Guessimate of seats based on the consolidated poll numbers (above). Headline: Reform overtake the Conservatives for 2nd Place.
Labour: 229 (-182), 25.2% – [97 Short of majority]
Reform: 153 (+148), 25.1%
Conservative: 116 (-5), 22.1%
Liberal: 72 (=), 12.5%
SNP: 42 (+33), 2.8%
Green: 5 (+1), 8.4%
PLC: 4 (=), 0.6%
Other: 10 (+5), 3.3%
*650 seats in Commons of which Sinn Fein win around 7 and do not sit equalling 643 sitting MPs.
Majority needed is therefore 322 achieved by coalition of following:
Labour Lib SNP: 343 seats
Reform-Labour: 382 seats
Tory-Labour: 345
Reform Tory Liberal: 341
Map shows projected constituencies by Party
Pollster: More In Common
Survey Date: 14- 18th Feb
Last Survey: 7-10 Feb
Reform: 26% (+1)
Labour: 25% (=)
Conservative: 23% (=)
Liberal: 12% (=)
Green: 7% (-1)
SNP: 2% (=)
Pollster: YouGov
Survey Date: 16-17th Feb
Last Survey: 9-10th Feb
Reform: 27% (+1)
Labour: 25% (=)
Conservatives: 21% (=)
Liberal Democrats: 14% (=)
Green: 9% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: Via Techne
Survey Date: 12th-13th Feb
Last Survey: 5-6 Feb
.
Labour: 26% (+1)
Reform: 25% (=)
Conservative: 22% (-1)
Liberal Democrat: 12% (-1)
Green: 8% (+1)
SNP: 2% (=)
Pollster: Find Out Now
Survey Date: 12th Feb
Last Survey: 5 Feb
Reform: 29% (=)
Labour: 23% (-2)
Conservative: 21% (+3)
Liberal Democrat: 12% (-1)
Green: 9% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: More In Common
Survey Date: 7-10th Feb
Last Survey: 31 Jan -3 Feb
Reform: 25% (+1)
Labour: 25% (+1)
Conservative: 23% (-3)
Liberal Democrat: 12% (-1)
Green: 8% (+2)
Pollster: YouGov
Survey Date: 9-10th Feb
Last Survey: 2-3 Feb
Reform: 26% (+1)
Labour: 25% (+1)
Conservative: 21% (=)
Liberal Democrat: 14% (=)
Green: 9% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: Opinium Research
Survey Date: 5-7th Feb
Last Survey: 22-24 Jan
Labour: 27% (-1)
Reform: 26% (-1)
Conservative: 22% (+1)
Liberal: 11% (=)
Green: 8% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: Electoral Calculus
Survey Date: 7th Feb
Conducted: 22-29 Jan
Last Survey: New
Election Result guessimate based on MRP Poll, 5th Feb 2025. Analysis by Electoral Calculus.
Reform: 175 (+170)
Labour: 174 (-238)
Liberal Democrat: 57 (-15)
SNP: 37 (+28)
Conservative: 178 (+57)
Green: 4(=)
Plaid Cymru: 2 (-2)
Others: 5 (=)
*650 seats in Commons of which Sinn Fein win around 7 and do not sit equalling 643 sitting MPs.
Majority needed is therefore 322 achieved by coalition of following:
Reform-Tory: 353 seats
Reform-Labour: 349 seats
Tory-Labour: 352
Map shows projected constituencies by Party
Election Result guessimate based on Find Out Now Poll, 5th Feb 2025. Analysis by Election Maps UK.
Reform: 253 (+248) – 73 Short*
Labour: 196 (-215)
Liberal Democrat: 77 (+5)
SNP: 45 (+36)
Conservative: 40 (-81)
Green: 7 (+3)
Plaid Cymru: 4 (=)
Others: 9 (+4)
*650 seats in Commons of which Sinn Fein win around 7 and do not sit equalling 643 sitting MPs.
Majority needed is therefore 322
Reform would be 69 seats short.
Map shows projected constituencies by Party
Pollster: Find Out Now
Survey Date: 5th Feb
Last Survey: 29 Jan
Reform: 29% (+2)
Labour: 25% (+2)
Conservative: 18% (-3)
Liberal Democrat: 13% (+2)
Green: 10% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster:More in common
Survey Date: 31st Jan-3 Feb
Last Survey: 24-27 Jan
Conservative: 26% (+2)
Labour: 24% (-1)
Reform: 24% (-1)
Liberal Democrat: 13% (=)
Green: 6% (-1)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Pollster: YouGov
Survey Date: 2-3 Feb
Last Survey: 19-20 Jan
Labour: 24% (-3)
Conservative: 21% (-1)
Reform: 25% (+2)
Liberal Democrat: 14% (=)
Green: 9% (=)
SNP 3%(=)
Pollster: BMG Research
Survey Date: 28-29 Jan
Last Survey: 22-27 Nov 2024
Labour: 25% (-4)
Conservative: 25% (-2)
Reform: 24% (+4)
Liberal Democrat: 14% (+2)
Green: 8% (+1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: Via Techne
Survey Date: 29-30 Jan
Last Survey: 22-23 Jan
Labour: 26% (+1)
Reform: 24% (=)
Conservative: 23% (-1)
Liberal: 12% (-1)
Green: 7% (=)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Pollster: Nowcast
Date: 30 Jan
Projection using recent Opinion Polls
650 seats in Commons of which Sinn Fein win around 7 and do not sit equalling 643 sitting MPs.
Majority needed is therefore 322
Labour shortfall would be 74 suggesting need for a ‘Rainbow Coalition’ with Lib Dem support and SNP or Green/Plaid
Projected Seats
LAB: 248 (-163), 25.8% – [78 Short of majority]
CON: 137 (+16), 22.4%
RFM: 114 (+109), 23.8%
LDM: 71 (-1), 12.4%
SNP: 42 (+33), 2.8%
GRN: 5 (+1), 8.8%
PLC: 4 (=), 0.6%
Oth: 10 (+5), 3.3%
Pollster: Findoutnow
Survey Date: 29 Jan
Last Survey: 22 Jan.
Reform: 27% (+1)
Labour: 23% (+1)
Conservative: 21% (-2)
Liberal Democrat: 11% (-1)
Green: 10% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: Survation
Survey Date: 28-29 Jan
Last Survey: 12-16 December
Labour: 27% (-3)
Reform: 24% (+4)
Conservative: 22% (-3)
Liberal Democrat: 13% (+2)
Green: 8% (+1)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Pollster: More in common
Survey Date: 24 – 27 Jan
Last Survey: 17 – 20 Jan
Labour: 25% (+1)
Reform: 25% (=)
Conservative: 24% (-1)
Liberal Democrats: 13% (+1)
Green: 7% (=)
SNP: 2% (-1)
Pollster: YouGov
Survey Date: 26-27 Jan
Last Survey: 19 – 20 Jan
Labour: 27% (+1)
Reform: 23% (-1)
Conservative: 22% (=)
Liberal Democrat: 14% (=)
Green: 9% (=)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: Opinium Research
Survey Date: 22-24 Jan
Last Survey: 8-10 Jan
Labour: 28% (-1)
Reform: 27% (+3)
Conservative: 21% (-2)
Liberal Democrat: 11% (+1)
Green: 8% (-1)
SNP: 3% (+1)
Pollster: Findoutnow
Survey Date: 22 Jan
Last Survey: 15 Jan.
Reform: 26% (+1)
Conservative: 23% (-2)
Labour: 22% (-2)
Liberal Democrat: 12% (=)
Green: 10% (=)
Pollster: Via Techne
Survey Date: 22-23 Jan
Last Survey: 15-16 Jan.
Labour: 25% (-1)
Conservative: 24% (-1)
Reform: 24% (+1)
Liberal Democrat: 14% (+1)
Green: 7% (=)
SNP: 2% (=)
Pollster: More In Common
Survey Date: 17-20 Jan
Last Survey: 10-13 Jan.
Conservative: 25% (=)
Reform: 25% (+1)
Labour: 24% (=)
Liberal Democrat: 12% (=)
Green: 7% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: Delta Poll
Survey Date: 17-20 Jan
Last Survey: 30 Dec 2024.
Labour: 29% (-1)
Conservative: 25% (+2)
Reform: 22% (=)
Liberal Democrat: 11% (-1)
Green: 8% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: YouGov
Survey Date: 19-20 Jan
Last Survey: 12-13 Jan
Labour: 26% (=)
Reform: 24% (-1)
Conservative: 22% (=)
Liberal Democrat: 14% (=)
Green: 9% (+1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: Techne UK
Survey Date: 15-16 Jan
Last Survey: 18-19 Dec 2024
Labour: 26% (-1)
Conservatives: 25% (-1)
Reform: 23% (+2)
Liberal Democrats: 12% (=)
Green: 7% (=)
SNP: 2% (=)
Pollster: Find Out Now
Survey Date: 15 Jan
Last Survey: 8 Jan
Reform: 25% (=)
Conservative: 25% (+5)
Labour: 24% (-1)
Liberal Democrats: 12% (+1)
Green: 10% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: More In Common
Survey Date: 10-13 Jan
Last Survey: 6-8 Jan
Conservative: 25% (-1)
Labour 24% (-2)
Reform: 24% (+2)
Liberal Democrat 12% (=)
Green: 8% (+1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: You Gov
Survey Date: 12-13 Jan
Last Survey: Since Gen Election 2024
Labour: 26% (-9)
Reform: 25% (+10)
Conservative: 22% (-2)
Liberal Democrat: 14% (+1)
Green: 8% (+1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: Opinium Research
Survey Date: 8-10 Jan
Last Survey: 18-20 Dec 2024
Labour: 29% (=)
Reform: 24% (+2)
Conservative: 23% (=)
Liberal Democrat: 10% (-1)
Green: 9% (-1)
SNP: 2% (-1)
Pollster: More in common
Survey Date: 6-8 Jan
Last Survey: 6-10 Dec 2024
Labour: 26% (=)
Conservative: 26% (=)
Reform: 22% (+3)
Liberal Democrat: 12% (-1)
Green: 7% (-1)
SNP: 3% (=)
Pollster: Find Out Now
Survey Date: 8 Jan
Last Survey: 11 Dec 2024
Labour: 25% (-1)
Reform: 25% (=)
Conservative: 20% (-3)
Green: 11% (+2)
Liberal Democrat: 11% (=)
Pollster: Delta Poll
Survey Date: 30 Dec – 3 Jan
Last Survey: 14 – 18 Nov 2024
Labour: 30% (+1)
Conservative: 23% (-4)
Reform: 22% (+4)
Liberal Democrat: 12% (=)